A) Nominal rate of assistance: 1960 -- 2000 --------------------- Specification (5a) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.34780 LM-test for no threshold 24.02011 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using NRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.12390 LM-test for no threshold 16.39352 Bootstrap P-Value 0.01800 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.409352 , 8.474243 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06878 Residual Variance 0.00034 Joint R-Squared 0.37361 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00218 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.11199165 0.14331892 LS 0.010804691 0.0047052073 LPRIMARY -0.0032292979 0.0070887882 LPOP -0.082715160 0.045066113 LRGDP0 -0.016948935 0.014825035 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.39961180 1.9768848 LS -0.0037259512 0.020151808 LPRIMARY -0.041113267 0.010775608 LPOP -0.17152469 0.20020022 LRGDP0 -0.25749958 0.013942500 Observations 61.00000 Degrees of Freedom 56.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02528 Residual Variance 0.00045 R-squared 0.18676 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.022540538 0.031484294 LS 0.020432623 0.0038227624 LPRIMARY 0.022046318 0.0075614109 LPOP -0.057998713 0.016264925 LRGDP0 -0.019508343 0.0028211601 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13984367 0.039239386 LS 0.012940009 0.029028458 LPRIMARY 0.0018435407 0.036866683 LPOP -0.091177290 -0.025526792 LRGDP0 -0.025037817 -0.0098782704 Observations 150.00000 Degrees of Freedom 145.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04351 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.34734 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = NRA Threshold Estimate 0.29590 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.295900 , 0.352900 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06984 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.36398 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00005 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: NRA <= 0.295900 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.16100770 0.041528804 LS 0.014626333 0.0034681843 LPRIMARY 0.0055066337 0.0045883940 LPOP -0.084157099 0.017796461 LRGDP0 -0.010084441 0.0028210950 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.24240415 -0.074126164 LS 0.0077650859 0.021423974 LPRIMARY -0.0035164734 0.014558573 LPOP -0.11903816 -0.046559521 LRGDP0 -0.015613787 -0.0043782016 Observations 156.00000 Degrees of Freedom 151.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.06419 Residual Variance 0.00043 R-squared 0.26023 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: NRA > 0.295900 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.27805796 0.048644025 LS 0.018215188 0.0056895963 LPRIMARY 0.089057144 0.045096303 LPOP 0.019598284 0.016216255 LRGDP0 -0.026588717 0.0046842144 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 0.17769583 0.37340025 LS 0.0070635787 0.029795600 LPRIMARY 0.00066839015 0.18057329 LPOP -0.018320949 0.051382144 LRGDP0 -0.036938377 -0.017407656 Observations 55.00000 Degrees of Freedom 50.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00566 Residual Variance 0.00011 R-squared 0.66195 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (6a) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 42.35863 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using NRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.01560 LM-test for no threshold 23.14427 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.09831 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.977281 , 8.504006 ] Sum of Squared Errors 94.30199 Residual Variance 0.54197 Joint R-Squared 0.35560 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.25413 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.048362325 2.6856702 LM0 0.46455818 0.24564628 LS -0.0072600564 0.089802134 LPRIMARY -0.13342678 0.29600194 LPOP 1.5504256 1.1323690 LRGDP0 0.47136344 0.21776460 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -9.7565175 5.2155513 LM0 -0.078769545 0.96343558 LS -0.18717509 0.28055536 LPRIMARY -0.75063108 0.45063749 LPOP -1.8467083 3.7698688 LRGDP0 0.044544816 0.99846851 Observations 95.00000 Degrees of Freedom 89.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 69.11337 Residual Variance 0.77655 R-squared 0.14859 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 12.569435 2.4429362 LM0 -2.1445088 1.0087053 LS 0.71763837 0.34452463 LPRIMARY 1.3383677 0.97917320 LPOP -0.34484362 0.52790160 LRGDP0 -0.60866535 0.31027287 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 5.6721870 22.286340 LM0 -5.4085489 0.086267193 LS 0.042370085 1.3929066 LPRIMARY -7.1342841 3.9146560 LPOP -1.5308085 1.6809825 LRGDP0 -1.2168002 0.19826057 Observations 91.00000 Degrees of Freedom 85.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.18863 Residual Variance 0.29634 R-squared 0.59458 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = NRA Threshold Estimate 0.29590 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.295900 , 0.360200 ] Sum of Squared Errors 97.23031 Residual Variance 0.55879 Joint R-Squared 0.33559 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.20477 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: NRA <= 0.295900 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 4.5320477 2.2978093 LM0 0.46653069 0.24710761 LS 0.10125727 0.10566649 LPRIMARY 0.25474218 0.30881590 LPOP 1.1638440 1.0810192 LRGDP0 -0.31955936 0.14196676 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 0.028341485 9.0357540 LM0 -0.017800222 0.95086161 LS -0.10584906 0.30836359 LPRIMARY -0.35053698 0.86002135 LPOP -0.95495364 3.2826417 LRGDP0 -0.59781421 -0.041304513 Observations 137.00000 Degrees of Freedom 131.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 88.18405 Residual Variance 0.67316 R-squared 0.08142 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: NRA > 0.295900 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.988393 4.0244506 LM0 -4.5660662 0.48522675 LS 0.63234022 0.30465182 LPRIMARY 0.61871403 2.6784131 LPOP -0.29941723 0.85921698 LRGDP0 -0.51550189 0.24808102 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 15.100470 30.876316 LM0 -5.5171106 -3.6150218 LS 0.035222651 1.2294578 LPRIMARY -4.6309756 5.8684036 LPOP -1.9834825 1.3846481 LRGDP0 -1.0017407 -0.029263092 Observations 49.00000 Degrees of Freedom 43.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 9.04625 Residual Variance 0.21038 R-squared 0.81663 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (7a) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.34780 LM-test for no threshold 24.02011 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPNRP Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 2.51703 LM-test for no threshold 16.79878 Bootstrap P-Value 0.01900 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.409352 , 8.474243 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06878 Residual Variance 0.00034 Joint R-Squared 0.37361 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00218 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.11199165 0.14331892 LS 0.010804691 0.0047052073 LPRIMARY -0.0032292979 0.0070887882 LPOP -0.082715160 0.045066113 LRGDP0 -0.016948935 0.014825035 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.39961180 1.9768848 LS -0.0037259512 0.020151808 LPRIMARY -0.041113267 0.010775608 LPOP -0.17152469 0.20020022 LRGDP0 -0.25749958 0.013942500 Observations 61.00000 Degrees of Freedom 56.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02528 Residual Variance 0.00045 R-squared 0.18676 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.022540538 0.031484294 LS 0.020432623 0.0038227624 LPRIMARY 0.022046318 0.0075614109 LPOP -0.057998713 0.016264925 LRGDP0 -0.019508343 0.0028211601 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13984367 0.039239386 LS 0.012940009 0.029028458 LPRIMARY 0.0018435407 0.036866683 LPOP -0.091177290 -0.025526792 LRGDP0 -0.025037817 -0.0098782704 Observations 150.00000 Degrees of Freedom 145.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04351 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.34734 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPNRP Threshold Estimate 2.37000 95% Confidence Interval: [ -3.26922 , 5.151409 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06948 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.36725 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00005 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPNRP <= 2.370000 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.17435123 0.043749287 LS 0.014627109 0.0034787807 LPRIMARY 0.0053296750 0.0045917304 LPOP -0.089153109 0.018291400 LRGDP0 -0.010036301 0.0028349656 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.26009983 -0.046400931 LS 0.0074551446 0.021574165 LPRIMARY -0.0048688587 0.015765988 LPOP -0.12504205 -0.033348986 LRGDP0 -0.016269447 -0.0022810209 Observations 153.00000 Degrees of Freedom 148.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.06375 Residual Variance 0.00043 R-squared 0.26414 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPNRP > 2.370000 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.27713315 0.047798044 LS 0.018547453 0.0055593722 LPRIMARY 0.086148381 0.043810369 LPOP 0.019583371 0.014705638 LRGDP0 -0.026638788 0.0044511299 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.0023318923 0.52778346 LS -0.010408090 0.035099425 LPRIMARY -0.025451216 0.17981125 LPOP -0.073331960 0.062076680 LRGDP0 -0.046910968 -0.014572905 Observations 58.00000 Degrees of Freedom 53.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00573 Residual Variance 0.00011 R-squared 0.66160 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (8a) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 42.35863 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPNRP Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.49479 LM-test for no threshold 26.16898 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LLM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.09831 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.977281 , 8.504006 ] Sum of Squared Errors 94.30199 Residual Variance 0.54197 Joint R-Squared 0.35560 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.25413 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.048362325 2.6856702 LLM0 0.46455818 0.24564628 LS -0.0072600564 0.089802134 LPRIMARY -0.13342678 0.29600194 LPOP 1.5504256 1.1323690 LRGDP0 0.47136344 0.21776460 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -9.7565175 5.2155513 LLM0 -0.078769545 0.96343558 LS -0.18717509 0.28055536 LPRIMARY -0.75063108 0.45063749 LPOP -1.8467083 3.7698688 LRGDP0 0.044544816 0.99846851 Observations 95.00000 Degrees of Freedom 89.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 69.11337 Residual Variance 0.77655 R-squared 0.14859 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 12.569435 2.4429362 LLM0 -2.1445088 1.0087053 LS 0.71763837 0.34452463 LPRIMARY 1.3383677 0.97917320 LPOP -0.34484362 0.52790160 LRGDP0 -0.60866535 0.31027287 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 5.6721870 22.286340 LLM0 -5.4085489 0.086267193 LS 0.042370085 1.3929066 LPRIMARY -7.1342841 3.9146560 LPOP -1.5308085 1.6809825 LRGDP0 -1.2168002 0.19826057 Observations 91.00000 Degrees of Freedom 85.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.18863 Residual Variance 0.29634 R-squared 0.59458 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LLM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPNRP Threshold Estimate 2.51703 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.452859 , 2.777340 ] Sum of Squared Errors 97.01078 Residual Variance 0.55753 Joint R-Squared 0.33709 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.20031 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPNRP <= 2.517025 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 4.9343348 2.5764606 LLM0 0.47427523 0.24808072 LS 0.099845970 0.10608258 LPRIMARY 0.25623217 0.30884229 LPOP 1.3243032 1.1981917 LRGDP0 -0.32083575 0.14253444 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.30097304 12.564785 LLM0 -0.042180134 1.0414803 LS -0.15871560 0.31339058 LPRIMARY -0.65960868 0.86394425 LPOP -1.0813301 5.3618142 LRGDP0 -0.60050986 0.29636678 Observations 135.00000 Degrees of Freedom 129.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 87.90871 Residual Variance 0.68146 R-squared 0.08412 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPNRP > 2.517025 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.960267 3.9844538 LLM0 -4.4638383 0.44264669 LS 0.65497569 0.30947900 LPRIMARY 0.37793991 2.5283514 LPOP -0.15090854 0.84591116 LRGDP0 -0.52414136 0.25164250 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 3.9212525 31.273867 LLM0 -6.0059893 -0.26422721 LS -0.0079575615 1.4816956 LPRIMARY -4.7180101 6.6680557 LPOP -2.4387207 1.7115166 LRGDP0 -1.0691325 0.35154919 Observations 51.00000 Degrees of Freedom 45.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 9.10207 Residual Variance 0.20227 R-squared 0.81567 __________________________________________________ B) Nominal rate of assistance: 1960 -- 1990 --------------------- Specification (5b) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 LM-test for no threshold 17.62689 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00300 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using NRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -0.26270 LM-test for no threshold 14.00636 Bootstrap P-Value 0.04400 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.463653 , 7.287629 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04953 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.39456 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00531 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.073322362 0.16360793 LS 0.010413765 0.0049644779 LPRIMARY 0.0020035569 0.0094145650 LPOP -0.078016344 0.049402374 LRGDP0 -0.020084976 0.020593335 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.40603467 2.2714047 LS -0.0084598559 0.020281805 LPRIMARY -0.084677339 0.020720043 LPOP -0.17601743 0.32750219 LRGDP0 -0.25759987 0.023100832 Observations 45.00000 Degrees of Freedom 40.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01972 Residual Variance 0.00049 R-squared 0.17074 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.0039841729 0.032218618 LS 0.019010667 0.0043340879 LPRIMARY 0.029306100 0.0082258824 LPOP -0.062005499 0.017932318 LRGDP0 -0.022307776 0.0035748702 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13184224 0.059164318 LS 0.010515855 0.029852367 LPRIMARY 0.0060482912 0.045428830 LPOP -0.097452327 -0.025917785 LRGDP0 -0.029314522 -0.010069728 Observations 107.00000 Degrees of Freedom 102.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02980 Residual Variance 0.00029 R-squared 0.38706 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = NRA Threshold Estimate -0.38110 95% Confidence Interval: [ -0.46870 , -0.38110 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04901 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.40088 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.14275 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: NRA <= -0.38110 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.94781334 0.11503439 LS 0.023332924 0.0043807604 LPRIMARY -0.013754127 0.0079644087 LPOP -0.25181724 0.032697791 LRGDP0 0.034441439 0.0062103631 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -1.1732808 -0.72234593 LS 0.014746633 0.031919214 LPRIMARY -0.029364368 0.0018561145 LPOP -0.31590491 -0.18772957 LRGDP0 0.022269128 0.046613751 Observations 13.00000 Degrees of Freedom 8.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00208 Residual Variance 0.00026 R-squared 0.71092 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: NRA > -0.38110 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.042151655 0.032853350 LS 0.017941146 0.0039868507 LPRIMARY 0.019229826 0.0051990951 LPOP -0.060306880 0.018340622 LRGDP0 -0.017293411 0.0031628711 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.10654422 0.022240911 LS 0.010126919 0.025755373 LPRIMARY 0.0090395995 0.029420052 LPOP -0.096254500 -0.024359261 LRGDP0 -0.023492639 -0.011094184 Observations 139.00000 Degrees of Freedom 134.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04692 Residual Variance 0.00035 R-squared 0.32059 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (6b) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 31.87977 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using NRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.06500 LM-test for no threshold 21.10923 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.35981 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.492162 ] Sum of Squared Errors 80.28521 Residual Variance 0.69211 Joint R-Squared 0.38409 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.17044 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -3.7616520 2.7765768 LM0 0.36288745 0.32868714 LS 0.0079474300 0.12933431 LPRIMARY -0.069284035 0.39124500 LPOP 0.13203599 1.1194158 LRGDP0 0.52709058 0.23549186 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -12.904677 6.5720159 LM0 -0.28133935 1.1512169 LS -0.26979598 0.35128999 LPRIMARY -0.94556164 0.69755617 LPOP -2.6220099 5.0193109 LRGDP0 0.065526532 1.3729405 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 66.43506 Residual Variance 0.99157 R-squared 0.14923 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.631969 3.5190821 LM0 -4.6886483 1.2500616 LS 0.85368921 0.44791234 LPRIMARY 0.048999670 2.0952116 LPOP -0.46781824 0.58911761 LRGDP0 -0.56025542 0.46542683 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 7.0393633 29.529370 LM0 -7.1387690 -1.1199414 LS -0.024218982 2.0733591 LPRIMARY -6.5281431 6.1015164 LPOP -2.4166180 1.1041701 LRGDP0 -1.5701199 0.40405911 Observations 55.00000 Degrees of Freedom 49.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 13.85015 Residual Variance 0.28266 R-squared 0.71839 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = NRA Threshold Estimate 0.10150 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.079200 , 0.346900 ] Sum of Squared Errors 87.74909 Residual Variance 0.75646 Joint R-Squared 0.32683 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.22216 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: NRA <= 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 9.9604933 3.1692083 LM0 0.39414497 0.37059697 LS -0.034820991 0.14285319 LPRIMARY 0.089645426 0.41110161 LPOP 4.2430576 1.3533174 LRGDP0 0.090655568 0.16999696 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -2.5465990 16.209061 LM0 -0.34125835 1.3056814 LS -0.33484712 0.35594308 LPRIMARY -0.90513767 1.1809355 LPOP -2.1131857 6.9112030 LRGDP0 -0.64418903 0.44354937 Observations 80.00000 Degrees of Freedom 74.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 66.42763 Residual Variance 0.89767 R-squared 0.10503 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: NRA > 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 16.085542 5.0553539 LM0 -3.8420525 1.8672328 LS 1.0574036 0.65372981 LPRIMARY 3.2614178 1.3118484 LPOP -0.15046585 0.63037771 LRGDP0 -0.23618390 0.61479640 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 2.4575943 32.780522 LM0 -7.7700888 1.0740981 LS -0.39899505 2.4827691 LPRIMARY -8.0130695 7.5704973 LPOP -3.7388420 2.3495411 LRGDP0 -1.8727451 0.99237369 Observations 48.00000 Degrees of Freedom 42.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 21.32146 Residual Variance 0.50765 R-squared 0.62013 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (7b) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 LM-test for no threshold 17.62689 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00900 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPNRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.82198 LM-test for no threshold 13.57382 Bootstrap P-Value 0.04900 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.463653 , 7.287629 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04953 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.39456 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00531 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.073322362 0.16360793 LS 0.010413765 0.0049644779 LPRIMARY 0.0020035569 0.0094145650 LPOP -0.078016344 0.049402374 LRGDP0 -0.020084976 0.020593335 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.40603467 2.2714047 LS -0.0084598559 0.020281805 LPRIMARY -0.084677339 0.020720043 LPOP -0.17601743 0.32750219 LRGDP0 -0.25759987 0.023100832 Observations 45.00000 Degrees of Freedom 40.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01972 Residual Variance 0.00049 R-squared 0.17074 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.0039841729 0.032218618 LS 0.019010667 0.0043340879 LPRIMARY 0.029306100 0.0082258824 LPOP -0.062005499 0.017932318 LRGDP0 -0.022307776 0.0035748702 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13184224 0.059164318 LS 0.010515855 0.029852367 LPRIMARY 0.0060482912 0.045428830 LPOP -0.097452327 -0.025917785 LRGDP0 -0.029314522 -0.010069728 Observations 107.00000 Degrees of Freedom 102.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02980 Residual Variance 0.00029 R-squared 0.38706 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPNRA Threshold Estimate -2.71390 95% Confidence Interval: [ -3.18497 , -2.65472 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04928 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.39756 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.14142 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPNRA <= -2.71390 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.94810106 0.11410905 LS 0.023310666 0.0043057920 LPRIMARY -0.013177907 0.010480857 LPOP -0.25196143 0.032476435 LRGDP0 0.034448505 0.0061872182 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -1.2780063 -0.29213295 LS 0.0073715667 0.036752766 LPRIMARY -0.036222427 0.0073645721 LPOP -0.33007644 -0.070210681 LRGDP0 0.0020061773 0.053400126 Observations 12.00000 Degrees of Freedom 7.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00208 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.71111 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPNRA > -2.71390 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.043209519 0.032868083 LS 0.017678930 0.0039702276 LPRIMARY 0.019875971 0.0052065075 LPOP -0.060898144 0.018329438 LRGDP0 -0.017266412 0.0031595736 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.11034964 0.024117498 LS 0.0098972844 0.026573329 LPRIMARY 0.0081102483 0.030080726 LPOP -0.096823842 -0.023580825 LRGDP0 -0.023602643 -0.010737935 Observations 140.00000 Degrees of Freedom 135.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04720 Residual Variance 0.00035 R-squared 0.32149 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (8b) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 31.87977 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPNRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.45286 LM-test for no threshold 24.72974 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LLM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.35981 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.492162 ] Sum of Squared Errors 80.28521 Residual Variance 0.69211 Joint R-Squared 0.38409 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.17044 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -3.7616520 2.7765768 LLM0 0.36288745 0.32868714 LS 0.0079474300 0.12933431 LPRIMARY -0.069284035 0.39124500 LPOP 0.13203599 1.1194158 LRGDP0 0.52709058 0.23549186 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -12.904677 6.5720159 LLM0 -0.28133935 1.1512169 LS -0.26979598 0.35128999 LPRIMARY -0.94556164 0.69755617 LPOP -2.6220099 5.0193109 LRGDP0 0.065526532 1.3729405 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 66.43506 Residual Variance 0.99157 R-squared 0.14923 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.631969 3.5190821 LLM0 -4.6886483 1.2500616 LS 0.85368921 0.44791234 LPRIMARY 0.048999670 2.0952116 LPOP -0.46781824 0.58911761 LRGDP0 -0.56025542 0.46542683 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 7.0393633 29.529370 LLM0 -7.1387690 -1.1199414 LS -0.024218982 2.0733591 LPRIMARY -6.5281431 6.1015164 LPOP -2.4166180 1.1041701 LRGDP0 -1.5701199 0.40405911 Observations 55.00000 Degrees of Freedom 49.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 13.85015 Residual Variance 0.28266 R-squared 0.71839 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LLM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPNRA Threshold Estimate 1.12357 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.452859 , 2.722012 ] Sum of Squared Errors 87.73764 Residual Variance 0.75636 Joint R-Squared 0.32692 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.37239 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPNRA <= 1.123574 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 5.9718799 4.1935572 LLM0 0.34430349 0.34702217 LS 0.042815915 0.14228266 LPRIMARY 0.31651999 0.40548143 LPOP 1.9710733 1.9399097 LRGDP0 -0.15120937 0.19235665 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -2.6790275 16.155853 LLM0 -0.42449032 1.2921451 LS -0.32708777 0.35594308 LPRIMARY -0.98583423 1.1809271 LPOP -2.1131857 6.8529688 LRGDP0 -0.64418903 0.73833724 Observations 88.00000 Degrees of Freedom 82.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 76.96540 Residual Variance 0.93860 R-squared 0.06310 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPNRA > 1.123574 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 21.174765 3.2357417 LLM0 -3.5620417 0.77591433 LS 1.0148650 0.50309162 LPRIMARY -2.2020927 1.8641581 LPOP 0.51968768 0.81974716 LRGDP0 -0.69428253 0.34486857 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 0.87187735 32.780522 LLM0 -7.8072488 1.3414822 LS -0.42483509 2.3496853 LPRIMARY -8.0130695 7.5595744 LPOP -3.4583574 2.3495411 LRGDP0 -1.8727451 0.80646556 Observations 40.00000 Degrees of Freedom 34.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 10.77224 Residual Variance 0.31683 R-squared 0.77610 __________________________________________________ C) Relative rate of assistance: 1960 -- 2000 --------------------- Specification (5c) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.34780 LM-test for no threshold 22.52853 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using RRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.36510 LM-test for no threshold 16.76206 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00700 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.078724892 0.033001383 LS 0.015689436 0.0034725805 LPRIMARY 0.010353779 0.0063248438 LPOP -0.057499041 0.016340343 LRGDP0 -0.011675607 0.0029523793 Observations 196.00000 Degrees of Freedom 191.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.07624 Residual Variance 0.00040 R-squared 0.24476 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00016 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.19751 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.409352 , 8.544049 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06510 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.35509 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00168 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.197510 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.14621779 0.15791041 LS 0.0099749598 0.0048401303 LPRIMARY -0.011434796 0.0092394485 LPOP -0.079472891 0.051475387 LRGDP0 -0.010781993 0.014918892 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.46023990 2.0773250 LS -0.0088370732 0.019461615 LPRIMARY -0.087210896 0.0073625056 LPOP -0.18036465 0.22274607 LRGDP0 -0.26311684 0.019368445 Observations 47.00000 Degrees of Freedom 42.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02161 Residual Variance 0.00051 R-squared 0.17827 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.197510 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.023361685 0.032152999 LS 0.020312338 0.0039079060 LPRIMARY 0.022043412 0.0075561708 LPOP -0.058268501 0.016420918 LRGDP0 -0.019461653 0.0028371933 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13395734 0.039658192 LS 0.012652842 0.028495776 LPRIMARY -0.00045085417 0.036853507 LPOP -0.090453501 -0.025031688 LRGDP0 -0.025022552 -0.0099520126 Observations 149.00000 Degrees of Freedom 144.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04349 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.34425 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.078724892 0.033001383 LS 0.015689436 0.0034725805 LPRIMARY 0.010353779 0.0063248438 LPOP -0.057499041 0.016340343 LRGDP0 -0.011675607 0.0029523793 Observations 196.00000 Degrees of Freedom 191.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.07624 Residual Variance 0.00040 R-squared 0.24476 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00016 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = RRA Threshold Estimate -0.33200 95% Confidence Interval: [ -0.58450 , 0.492100 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06835 Residual Variance 0.00037 Joint R-Squared 0.32294 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00278 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: RRA <= -0.33200 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.18373576 0.11517275 LS 0.011089478 0.0049906806 LPRIMARY -0.0096065316 0.010520382 LPOP -0.068679203 0.039516827 LRGDP0 -0.0017884547 0.0062402664 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -1.1057299 0.16830068 LS -0.0016596566 0.030565855 LPRIMARY -0.065951247 0.021077887 LPOP -0.32813339 0.043586151 LRGDP0 -0.018916477 0.044235703 Observations 46.00000 Degrees of Freedom 41.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01980 Residual Variance 0.00048 R-squared 0.17943 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: RRA > -0.33200 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.042072616 0.035117702 LS 0.019944405 0.0043717224 LPRIMARY 0.016890521 0.0076968036 LPOP -0.058559371 0.017472165 LRGDP0 -0.017368009 0.0028361225 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.12313240 0.71843087 LS -0.022486035 0.061751097 LPRIMARY -0.043033886 0.12948681 LPOP -0.094846438 0.085836433 LRGDP0 -0.048999258 -0.0090649786 Observations 150.00000 Degrees of Freedom 145.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04855 Residual Variance 0.00033 R-squared 0.29371 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (6c) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 41.41715 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using RRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -0.27870 LM-test for no threshold 22.17840 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.1795386 1.5116031 LM0 0.57372384 0.26081614 LS 0.23263544 0.13008484 LPRIMARY 0.47520878 0.39442885 LPOP 1.1058463 0.76131858 LRGDP0 -0.50016542 0.15351624 Observations 174.00000 Degrees of Freedom 168.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 124.00475 Residual Variance 0.73812 R-squared 0.13566 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.27707 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.09831 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.504006 ] Sum of Squared Errors 92.71487 Residual Variance 0.57231 Joint R-Squared 0.35376 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.17539 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.55499826 3.1050479 LM0 0.47464041 0.26634914 LS -0.0042606305 0.092863422 LPRIMARY -0.063692304 0.37742758 LPOP 1.7761366 1.2688089 LRGDP0 0.46717233 0.22719391 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -10.293837 6.6408921 LM0 -0.16210821 1.0947454 LS -0.18990025 0.29497714 LPRIMARY -0.89644505 0.67606576 LPOP -1.9676335 4.4449831 LRGDP0 0.021872271 1.1094289 Observations 83.00000 Degrees of Freedom 77.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 67.52624 Residual Variance 0.87696 R-squared 0.12754 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 12.569435 2.4429362 LM0 -2.1445088 1.0087053 LS 0.71763837 0.34452463 LPRIMARY 1.3383677 0.97917320 LPOP -0.34484362 0.52790160 LRGDP0 -0.60866535 0.31027287 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 5.4200315 22.286340 LM0 -5.4085489 0.086267193 LS 0.042370085 1.3929066 LPRIMARY -7.1342841 3.9146560 LPOP -1.6314454 1.6809825 LRGDP0 -1.2648732 0.19826057 Observations 91.00000 Degrees of Freedom 85.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.18863 Residual Variance 0.29634 R-squared 0.59458 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.1795386 1.5116031 LM0 0.57372384 0.26081614 LS 0.23263544 0.13008484 LPRIMARY 0.47520878 0.39442885 LPOP 1.1058463 0.76131858 LRGDP0 -0.50016542 0.15351624 Observations 174.00000 Degrees of Freedom 168.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 124.00475 Residual Variance 0.73812 R-squared 0.13566 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.27707 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = RRA Threshold Estimate 0.01180 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.011800 , 0.136900 ] Sum of Squared Errors 91.40051 Residual Variance 0.56420 Joint R-Squared 0.36292 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.12430 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: RRA <= 0.011800 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 5.4931192 3.4068579 LM0 0.30018791 0.24921961 LS 0.083621056 0.11078324 LPRIMARY 0.52471092 0.26162212 LPOP 1.8988904 1.4574344 LRGDP0 -0.10237563 0.16182088 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -1.1843222 12.703556 LM0 -0.20936905 0.81335388 LS -0.13351409 0.35183180 LPRIMARY 0.011931558 1.1199450 LPOP -1.2767578 4.9117699 LRGDP0 -0.56683048 0.21492213 Observations 101.00000 Degrees of Freedom 95.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 65.45823 Residual Variance 0.68903 R-squared 0.07463 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: RRA > 0.011800 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 16.081313 4.2724047 LM0 -3.2169039 1.5268944 LS 1.0655863 0.43837515 LPRIMARY 1.1900733 1.6980073 LPOP 0.035816217 0.68146908 LRGDP0 -0.47412059 0.38703892 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 7.1586924 26.577962 LM0 -6.7817948 0.36005495 LS 0.20637099 2.1532917 LPRIMARY -2.2995784 4.9730285 LPOP -1.9144392 1.6489132 LRGDP0 -1.4753420 0.28447569 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.94228 Residual Variance 0.38720 R-squared 0.63765 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (7c) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.34780 LM-test for no threshold 22.52853 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPRRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 3.33587 LM-test for no threshold 17.21527 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00500 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.078724892 0.033001383 LS 0.015689436 0.0034725805 LPRIMARY 0.010353779 0.0063248438 LPOP -0.057499041 0.016340343 LRGDP0 -0.011675607 0.0029523793 Observations 196.00000 Degrees of Freedom 191.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.07624 Residual Variance 0.00040 R-squared 0.24476 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00016 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.19751 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.409352 , 8.544049 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06510 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.35509 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00168 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.197510 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.14621779 0.15791041 LS 0.0099749598 0.0048401303 LPRIMARY -0.011434796 0.0092394485 LPOP -0.079472891 0.051475387 LRGDP0 -0.010781993 0.014918892 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.46023990 2.0773250 LS -0.0088370732 0.019461615 LPRIMARY -0.087210896 0.0073625056 LPOP -0.18036465 0.22274607 LRGDP0 -0.26311684 0.019368445 Observations 47.00000 Degrees of Freedom 42.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02161 Residual Variance 0.00051 R-squared 0.17827 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.197510 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.023361685 0.032152999 LS 0.020312338 0.0039079060 LPRIMARY 0.022043412 0.0075561708 LPOP -0.058268501 0.016420918 LRGDP0 -0.019461653 0.0028371933 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13395734 0.039658192 LS 0.012652842 0.028495776 LPRIMARY -0.00045085417 0.036853507 LPOP -0.090453501 -0.025031688 LRGDP0 -0.025022552 -0.0099520126 Observations 149.00000 Degrees of Freedom 144.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04349 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.34425 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.078724892 0.033001383 LS 0.015689436 0.0034725805 LPRIMARY 0.010353779 0.0063248438 LPOP -0.057499041 0.016340343 LRGDP0 -0.011675607 0.0029523793 Observations 196.00000 Degrees of Freedom 191.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.07624 Residual Variance 0.00040 R-squared 0.24476 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00016 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPNRP Threshold Estimate 2.86995 95% Confidence Interval: [ -4.48502 , 5.228246 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06786 Residual Variance 0.00036 Joint R-Squared 0.32772 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00002 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPNRP <= 2.869946 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.12823966 0.045356735 LS 0.014049711 0.0035578395 LPRIMARY 0.0051970094 0.0065149791 LPOP -0.069144639 0.019656954 LRGDP0 -0.0088967145 0.0031048631 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.69394386 0.17894528 LS -0.0090248863 0.028851569 LPRIMARY -0.065674796 0.023823267 LPOP -0.22105508 0.10256918 LRGDP0 -0.023481668 0.031366777 Observations 145.00000 Degrees of Freedom 140.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.06315 Residual Variance 0.00045 R-squared 0.23353 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPNRP > 2.869946 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.35468129 0.098910912 LS 0.0037825030 0.0075878655 LPRIMARY 0.014057251 0.019366049 LPOP 0.016792529 0.022820772 LRGDP0 -0.030521296 0.0053726115 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.12693476 0.71843087 LS -0.022486035 0.064237423 LPRIMARY -0.057977214 0.10386410 LPOP -0.098272673 0.096618452 LRGDP0 -0.047975500 -0.0075509685 Observations 51.00000 Degrees of Freedom 46.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00471 Residual Variance 0.00010 R-squared 0.69192 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (8c) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 41.41715 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPRRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -1.24482 LM-test for no threshold 21.49016 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00100 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.1795386 1.5116031 LLM0 0.57372384 0.26081614 LS 0.23263544 0.13008484 LPRIMARY 0.47520878 0.39442885 LPOP 1.1058463 0.76131858 LRGDP0 -0.50016542 0.15351624 Observations 174.00000 Degrees of Freedom 168.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 124.00475 Residual Variance 0.73812 R-squared 0.13566 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.27707 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.09831 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.504006 ] Sum of Squared Errors 92.71487 Residual Variance 0.57231 Joint R-Squared 0.35376 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.17539 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.55499826 3.1050479 LLM0 0.47464041 0.26634914 LS -0.0042606305 0.092863422 LPRIMARY -0.063692304 0.37742758 LPOP 1.7761366 1.2688089 LRGDP0 0.46717233 0.22719391 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -10.293837 6.6408921 LLM0 -0.16210821 1.0947454 LS -0.18990025 0.29497714 LPRIMARY -0.89644505 0.67606576 LPOP -1.9676335 4.4449831 LRGDP0 0.021872271 1.1094289 Observations 83.00000 Degrees of Freedom 77.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 67.52624 Residual Variance 0.87696 R-squared 0.12754 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 12.569435 2.4429362 LLM0 -2.1445088 1.0087053 LS 0.71763837 0.34452463 LPRIMARY 1.3383677 0.97917320 LPOP -0.34484362 0.52790160 LRGDP0 -0.60866535 0.31027287 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 5.4200315 22.286340 LLM0 -5.4085489 0.086267193 LS 0.042370085 1.3929066 LPRIMARY -7.1342841 3.9146560 LPOP -1.6314454 1.6809825 LRGDP0 -1.2648732 0.19826057 Observations 91.00000 Degrees of Freedom 85.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.18863 Residual Variance 0.29634 R-squared 0.59458 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.1795386 1.5116031 LLM0 0.57372384 0.26081614 LS 0.23263544 0.13008484 LPRIMARY 0.47520878 0.39442885 LPOP 1.1058463 0.76131858 LRGDP0 -0.50016542 0.15351624 Observations 174.00000 Degrees of Freedom 168.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 124.00475 Residual Variance 0.73812 R-squared 0.13566 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.27707 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPRRA Threshold Estimate 0.07882 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.078816 , 1.114311 ] Sum of Squared Errors 91.40051 Residual Variance 0.56420 Joint R-Squared 0.36292 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.12430 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPRRA <= 0.078816 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 5.4931192 3.4068579 LLM0 0.30018791 0.24921961 LS 0.083621056 0.11078324 LPRIMARY 0.52471092 0.26162212 LPOP 1.8988904 1.4574344 LRGDP0 -0.10237563 0.16182088 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -1.1843222 12.703556 LLM0 -0.21794670 0.80291796 LS -0.13395653 0.34866231 LPRIMARY 0.011931558 1.1097940 LPOP -1.2862605 4.9223977 LRGDP0 -0.55654796 0.21492213 Observations 101.00000 Degrees of Freedom 95.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 65.45823 Residual Variance 0.68903 R-squared 0.07463 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPRRA > 0.078816 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 16.081313 4.2724047 LLM0 -3.2169039 1.5268944 LS 1.0655863 0.43837515 LPRIMARY 1.1900733 1.6980073 LPOP 0.035816217 0.68146908 LRGDP0 -0.47412059 0.38703892 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 7.1407662 24.866797 LLM0 -6.5117986 0.40111050 LS 0.20637099 2.1406736 LPRIMARY -2.3201338 4.6163109 LPOP -2.0385326 1.6505178 LRGDP0 -1.4758122 0.28447569 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.94228 Residual Variance 0.38720 R-squared 0.63765 __________________________________________________ D) Relative rate of assistance: 1960 -- 1990 --------------------- Specification (5d) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 7.19676 LM-test for no threshold 13.92254 Bootstrap P-Value 0.06000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using RRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -0.33200 LM-test for no threshold 12.42665 Bootstrap P-Value 0.10300 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.061908789 0.036165446 LS 0.013733816 0.0039623975 LPRIMARY 0.017347569 0.0073506658 LPOP -0.057302906 0.018053990 LRGDP0 -0.012719228 0.0037017503 Observations 142.00000 Degrees of Freedom 137.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05695 Residual Variance 0.00042 R-squared 0.24801 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00218 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.19676 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.463653 , 8.677490 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04759 Residual Variance 0.00036 Joint R-Squared 0.37158 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00546 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.196761 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.099687225 0.19215454 LS 0.0097061848 0.0051068027 LPRIMARY -0.0050048389 0.012500823 LPOP -0.073130276 0.058285277 LRGDP0 -0.014515389 0.021398767 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.47631012 2.2714047 LS -0.0091066100 0.020607964 LPRIMARY -0.084677339 0.021108248 LPOP -0.18736942 0.42476172 LRGDP0 -0.25759987 0.030417918 Observations 36.00000 Degrees of Freedom 31.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01780 Residual Variance 0.00057 R-squared 0.14987 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.196761 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.0044289703 0.033046414 LS 0.018938853 0.0044673761 LPRIMARY 0.029306720 0.0082205382 LPOP -0.062125113 0.018062558 LRGDP0 -0.022271563 0.0036094397 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.12348680 0.060342000 LS 0.0075583490 0.027694910 LPRIMARY 0.0046552213 0.045418975 LPOP -0.10001069 -0.024737417 LRGDP0 -0.029346065 -0.010099090 Observations 106.00000 Degrees of Freedom 101.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02980 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.38362 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.061908789 0.036165446 LS 0.013733816 0.0039623975 LPRIMARY 0.017347569 0.0073506658 LPOP -0.057302906 0.018053990 LRGDP0 -0.012719228 0.0037017503 Observations 142.00000 Degrees of Freedom 137.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05695 Residual Variance 0.00042 R-squared 0.24801 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00218 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = RRA Threshold Estimate -0.56240 95% Confidence Interval: [ -0.58450 , -0.52140 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04743 Residual Variance 0.00036 Joint R-Squared 0.37370 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.11107 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: RRA <= -0.56240 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.64442799 0.17581771 LS 0.017923270 0.0055988408 LPRIMARY -0.034301288 0.015398128 LPOP -0.16099209 0.068971295 LRGDP0 0.025588837 0.0075102290 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -1.0725531 -0.16959884 LS 0.0067172764 0.031106392 LPRIMARY -0.065951247 0.0084503845 LPOP -0.30977852 2.7978049E-006 LRGDP0 0.00098785612 0.044136679 Observations 14.00000 Degrees of Freedom 9.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00391 Residual Variance 0.00043 R-squared 0.48293 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: RRA > -0.56240 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.034178238 0.035374427 LS 0.015125657 0.0042537766 LPRIMARY 0.022539447 0.0070146352 LPOP -0.059375198 0.018559755 LRGDP0 -0.016893431 0.0029517855 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.10414777 0.038751833 LS 0.0042663915 0.023463060 LPRIMARY 0.0086822925 0.040933128 LPOP -0.10193164 -0.022430536 LRGDP0 -0.024066791 -0.011030342 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 123.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04352 Residual Variance 0.00035 R-squared 0.28475 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (6d) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 8.19420 LM-test for no threshold 31.26036 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using RRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -0.27870 LM-test for no threshold 21.96929 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00100 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.0616609 1.7924027 LM0 0.52302731 0.35826924 LS 0.18868131 0.16876064 LPRIMARY 0.62668966 0.48518364 LPOP 0.85360969 0.92527555 LRGDP0 -0.51984676 0.19466201 Observations 121.00000 Degrees of Freedom 115.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 114.93461 Residual Variance 0.99943 R-squared 0.10444 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.44511 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.35981 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.492162 ] Sum of Squared Errors 79.49666 Residual Variance 0.72933 Joint R-Squared 0.38057 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.12662 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -3.2089464 3.2436842 LM0 0.37344499 0.34872736 LS -0.0025397446 0.13786779 LPRIMARY -0.053072736 0.46139858 LPOP 0.28620749 1.2500776 LRGDP0 0.50874691 0.25287893 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -13.278739 9.3566157 LM0 -0.32143663 1.3222108 LS -0.29832607 0.36334927 LPRIMARY -1.0867838 0.85126849 LPOP -2.7069986 6.1372939 LRGDP0 0.013104208 1.4252394 Observations 66.00000 Degrees of Freedom 60.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 65.64651 Residual Variance 1.09411 R-squared 0.12558 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.631969 3.5190821 LM0 -4.6886483 1.2500616 LS 0.85368921 0.44791234 LPRIMARY 0.048999670 2.0952116 LPOP -0.46781824 0.58911761 LRGDP0 -0.56025542 0.46542683 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 6.6454893 29.529370 LM0 -7.1387690 -1.0193802 LS -0.024218982 2.0733591 LPRIMARY -6.5281431 6.1015164 LPOP -2.4166180 1.1041701 LRGDP0 -1.5701199 0.40405911 Observations 55.00000 Degrees of Freedom 49.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 13.85015 Residual Variance 0.28266 R-squared 0.71839 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.0616609 1.7924027 LM0 0.52302731 0.35826924 LS 0.18868131 0.16876064 LPRIMARY 0.62668966 0.48518364 LPOP 0.85360969 0.92527555 LRGDP0 -0.51984676 0.19466201 Observations 121.00000 Degrees of Freedom 115.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 114.93461 Residual Variance 0.99943 R-squared 0.10444 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.44511 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = RRA Threshold Estimate 0.01180 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.011800 , 0.110800 ] Sum of Squared Errors 78.66748 Residual Variance 0.72172 Joint R-Squared 0.38703 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.18631 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: RRA <= 0.011800 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 4.8966263 4.7402467 LM0 0.20385660 0.32634787 LS 0.044310291 0.14606293 LPRIMARY 0.65092750 0.32829820 LPOP 1.5961898 2.0247295 LRGDP0 -0.061380474 0.19307392 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -4.3942572 14.909399 LM0 -0.46241102 0.85292552 LS -0.24197306 0.39218363 LPRIMARY 0.0074630364 1.4210991 LPOP -2.4915287 5.8225218 LRGDP0 -0.61389546 0.31704440 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 58.49767 Residual Variance 0.87310 R-squared 0.07516 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: RRA > 0.011800 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 20.152571 4.7473696 LM0 -4.0088569 1.7758052 LS 1.5595603 0.60868463 LPRIMARY 1.5190139 1.7825487 LPOP 0.85940679 0.83554318 LRGDP0 -0.45312686 0.50915827 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 10.241333 30.168508 LM0 -8.1267952 0.027754340 LS 0.35108972 3.2060154 LPRIMARY -2.1975245 5.1013265 LPOP -1.8819477 3.1189996 LRGDP0 -1.7430854 0.60904532 Observations 48.00000 Degrees of Freedom 42.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 20.16981 Residual Variance 0.48023 R-squared 0.68968 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (7d) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 7.19676 LM-test for no threshold 13.92254 Bootstrap P-Value 0.06000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPRRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -2.55454 LM-test for no threshold 12.25450 Bootstrap P-Value 0.11300 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.061908789 0.036165446 LS 0.013733816 0.0039623975 LPRIMARY 0.017347569 0.0073506658 LPOP -0.057302906 0.018053990 LRGDP0 -0.012719228 0.0037017503 Observations 142.00000 Degrees of Freedom 137.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05695 Residual Variance 0.00042 R-squared 0.24801 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00218 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.19676 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.463653 , 8.677490 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04759 Residual Variance 0.00036 Joint R-Squared 0.37158 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00546 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.196761 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.099687225 0.19215454 LS 0.0097061848 0.0051068027 LPRIMARY -0.0050048389 0.012500823 LPOP -0.073130276 0.058285277 LRGDP0 -0.014515389 0.021398767 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.47631012 2.2714047 LS -0.0091066100 0.020607964 LPRIMARY -0.084677339 0.021108248 LPOP -0.18736942 0.42476172 LRGDP0 -0.25759987 0.030417918 Observations 36.00000 Degrees of Freedom 31.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01780 Residual Variance 0.00057 R-squared 0.14987 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.196761 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.0044289703 0.033046414 LS 0.018938853 0.0044673761 LPRIMARY 0.029306720 0.0082205382 LPOP -0.062125113 0.018062558 LRGDP0 -0.022271563 0.0036094397 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.12348680 0.060342000 LS 0.0075583490 0.027694910 LPRIMARY 0.0046552213 0.045418975 LPOP -0.10001069 -0.024737417 LRGDP0 -0.029346065 -0.010099090 Observations 106.00000 Degrees of Freedom 101.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02980 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.38362 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.061908789 0.036165446 LS 0.013733816 0.0039623975 LPRIMARY 0.017347569 0.0073506658 LPOP -0.057302906 0.018053990 LRGDP0 -0.012719228 0.0037017503 Observations 142.00000 Degrees of Freedom 137.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05695 Residual Variance 0.00042 R-squared 0.24801 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00218 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPRRA Threshold Estimate -4.16284 95% Confidence Interval: [ -4.16284 , -2.12038 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04831 Residual Variance 0.00037 Joint R-Squared 0.36212 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.07954 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPRRA <= -4.16284 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.19964838 0.12543575 LS 0.0076066255 0.0064148995 LPRIMARY -0.011450215 0.016365918 LPOP -0.022194840 0.048938617 LRGDP0 0.016845929 0.0067692329 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.75383321 0.19811482 LS -0.0075176535 0.028691470 LPRIMARY -0.063796704 0.027357244 LPOP -0.22825807 0.084193581 LRGDP0 -0.024568834 0.032555200 Observations 12.00000 Degrees of Freedom 7.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00332 Residual Variance 0.00047 R-squared 0.37048 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPRRA > -4.16284 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.033162533 0.035083930 LS 0.016991677 0.0041523909 LPRIMARY 0.021790894 0.0069493875 LPOP -0.057807252 0.018359326 LRGDP0 -0.017168090 0.0029590998 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.10881517 0.060216396 LS 0.0035133056 0.025130363 LPRIMARY 0.0081700946 0.051926552 LPOP -0.10485039 -0.020803799 LRGDP0 -0.025426561 -0.011099866 Observations 130.00000 Degrees of Freedom 125.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04499 Residual Variance 0.00036 R-squared 0.31282 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (8d) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 8.19420 LM-test for no threshold 31.26036 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPRRA Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -1.36003 LM-test for no threshold 20.74438 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00200 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.0616609 1.7924027 LLM0 0.52302731 0.35826924 LS 0.18868131 0.16876064 LPRIMARY 0.62668966 0.48518364 LPOP 0.85360969 0.92527555 LRGDP0 -0.51984676 0.19466201 Observations 121.00000 Degrees of Freedom 115.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 114.93461 Residual Variance 0.99943 R-squared 0.10444 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.44511 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.35981 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.492162 ] Sum of Squared Errors 79.49666 Residual Variance 0.72933 Joint R-Squared 0.38057 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.12662 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -3.2089464 3.2436842 LLM0 0.37344499 0.34872736 LS -0.0025397446 0.13786779 LPRIMARY -0.053072736 0.46139858 LPOP 0.28620749 1.2500776 LRGDP0 0.50874691 0.25287893 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -13.278739 9.3566157 LLM0 -0.32143663 1.3222108 LS -0.29832607 0.36334927 LPRIMARY -1.0867838 0.85126849 LPOP -2.7069986 6.1372939 LRGDP0 0.013104208 1.4252394 Observations 66.00000 Degrees of Freedom 60.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 65.64651 Residual Variance 1.09411 R-squared 0.12558 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.631969 3.5190821 LLM0 -4.6886483 1.2500616 LS 0.85368921 0.44791234 LPRIMARY 0.048999670 2.0952116 LPOP -0.46781824 0.58911761 LRGDP0 -0.56025542 0.46542683 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 6.6454893 29.529370 LLM0 -7.1387690 -1.0193802 LS -0.024218982 2.0733591 LPRIMARY -6.5281431 6.1015164 LPOP -2.4166180 1.1041701 LRGDP0 -1.5701199 0.40405911 Observations 55.00000 Degrees of Freedom 49.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 13.85015 Residual Variance 0.28266 R-squared 0.71839 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 5.0616609 1.7924027 LLM0 0.52302731 0.35826924 LS 0.18868131 0.16876064 LPRIMARY 0.62668966 0.48518364 LPOP 0.85360969 0.92527555 LRGDP0 -0.51984676 0.19466201 Observations 121.00000 Degrees of Freedom 115.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 114.93461 Residual Variance 0.99943 R-squared 0.10444 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.44511 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPRRA Threshold Estimate 0.07882 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.078816 , 1.104468 ] Sum of Squared Errors 78.66748 Residual Variance 0.72172 Joint R-Squared 0.38703 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.18631 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPRRA <= 0.078816 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 4.8966263 4.7402467 LLM0 0.20385660 0.32634787 LS 0.044310291 0.14606293 LPRIMARY 0.65092750 0.32829820 LPOP 1.5961898 2.0247295 LRGDP0 -0.061380474 0.19307392 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -4.3942572 14.909399 LLM0 -0.46241102 0.85292552 LS -0.24197306 0.39218363 LPRIMARY 0.0074630364 1.4210991 LPOP -2.4915287 5.8225218 LRGDP0 -0.61389546 0.31704440 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 58.49767 Residual Variance 0.87310 R-squared 0.07516 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPRRA > 0.078816 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 20.152571 4.7473696 LLM0 -4.0088569 1.7758052 LS 1.5595603 0.60868463 LPRIMARY 1.5190139 1.7825487 LPOP 0.85940679 0.83554318 LRGDP0 -0.45312686 0.50915827 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 10.241333 30.168508 LLM0 -8.1267952 0.027754340 LS 0.35108972 3.2060154 LPRIMARY -2.1975245 5.1013265 LPOP -1.8819477 3.1189996 LRGDP0 -1.7430854 0.60904532 Observations 48.00000 Degrees of Freedom 42.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 20.16981 Residual Variance 0.48023 R-squared 0.68968 __________________________________________________ E) Border market support: 1960 -- 2000 --------------------- Specification (5e) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.34780 LM-test for no threshold 24.02011 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using BMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.12040 LM-test for no threshold 16.91127 Bootstrap P-Value 0.01300 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.409352 , 8.474243 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06878 Residual Variance 0.00034 Joint R-Squared 0.37361 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00218 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.11199165 0.14331892 LS 0.010804691 0.0047052073 LPRIMARY -0.0032292979 0.0070887882 LPOP -0.082715160 0.045066113 LRGDP0 -0.016948935 0.014825035 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.39961180 1.9768848 LS -0.0037259512 0.020151808 LPRIMARY -0.041113267 0.010775608 LPOP -0.17152469 0.20020022 LRGDP0 -0.25749958 0.013942500 Observations 61.00000 Degrees of Freedom 56.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02528 Residual Variance 0.00045 R-squared 0.18676 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.022540538 0.031484294 LS 0.020432623 0.0038227624 LPRIMARY 0.022046318 0.0075614109 LPOP -0.057998713 0.016264925 LRGDP0 -0.019508343 0.0028211601 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13984367 0.039239386 LS 0.012940009 0.029028458 LPRIMARY 0.0018435407 0.036866683 LPOP -0.091177290 -0.025526792 LRGDP0 -0.025037817 -0.0098782704 Observations 150.00000 Degrees of Freedom 145.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04351 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.34734 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = BMS Threshold Estimate 0.10150 95% Confidence Interval: [ -0.46870 , 0.595300 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06906 Residual Variance 0.00034 Joint R-Squared 0.37110 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00011 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: BMS <= 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.13428609 0.055954916 LS 0.014031726 0.0035237540 LPRIMARY 0.0044774181 0.0047080866 LPOP -0.066843433 0.024118026 LRGDP0 -0.0076173262 0.0033042817 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -4.0458739 0.42066491 LS -0.011331453 0.065913828 LPRIMARY -0.050093796 0.021383150 LPOP -1.4131233 0.18093460 LRGDP0 -0.018623287 0.051497437 Observations 136.00000 Degrees of Freedom 131.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05774 Residual Variance 0.00044 R-squared 0.20320 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: BMS > 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.14307614 0.059589746 LS 0.023462508 0.0044289705 LPRIMARY 0.033152917 0.0090173591 LPOP -0.022404245 0.021697915 LRGDP0 -0.027112993 0.0032564112 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.12624474 0.51707275 LS -0.012107965 0.036914514 LPRIMARY -0.024560033 0.18196776 LPOP -0.090341096 0.061586792 LRGDP0 -0.048558054 -0.0090914338 Observations 75.00000 Degrees of Freedom 70.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01132 Residual Variance 0.00016 R-squared 0.56717 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (6e) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 42.35863 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using BMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.01300 LM-test for no threshold 25.73589 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.09831 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.977281 , 8.504006 ] Sum of Squared Errors 94.30199 Residual Variance 0.54197 Joint R-Squared 0.35560 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.25413 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.048362325 2.6856702 LM0 0.46455818 0.24564628 LS -0.0072600564 0.089802134 LPRIMARY -0.13342678 0.29600194 LPOP 1.5504256 1.1323690 LRGDP0 0.47136344 0.21776460 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -9.7565175 5.2155513 LM0 -0.078769545 0.96343558 LS -0.18717509 0.28055536 LPRIMARY -0.75063108 0.45063749 LPOP -1.8467083 3.7698688 LRGDP0 0.044544816 0.99846851 Observations 95.00000 Degrees of Freedom 89.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 69.11337 Residual Variance 0.77655 R-squared 0.14859 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 12.569435 2.4429362 LM0 -2.1445088 1.0087053 LS 0.71763837 0.34452463 LPRIMARY 1.3383677 0.97917320 LPOP -0.34484362 0.52790160 LRGDP0 -0.60866535 0.31027287 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 5.6721870 22.286340 LM0 -5.4085489 0.086267193 LS 0.042370085 1.3929066 LPRIMARY -7.1342841 3.9146560 LPOP -1.5308085 1.6809825 LRGDP0 -1.2168002 0.19826057 Observations 91.00000 Degrees of Freedom 85.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.18863 Residual Variance 0.29634 R-squared 0.59458 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = BMS Threshold Estimate 0.10150 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.080100 , 0.102300 ] Sum of Squared Errors 93.26481 Residual Variance 0.53600 Joint R-Squared 0.36269 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.12412 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: BMS <= 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 8.6089042 2.2645415 LM0 0.54162701 0.27288050 LS 0.031560836 0.10356242 LPRIMARY 0.027586346 0.33118391 LPOP 3.3978206 0.98234469 LRGDP0 -0.11109020 0.13594605 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 4.1704028 13.133095 LM0 0.0067812306 1.1025207 LS -0.17149824 0.23688124 LPRIMARY -0.62153412 0.69742560 LPOP 1.4627741 5.3232162 LRGDP0 -0.40442134 0.15536405 Observations 119.00000 Degrees of Freedom 113.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 74.35725 Residual Variance 0.65803 R-squared 0.12393 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: BMS > 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 16.565920 4.1575275 LM0 -4.2941651 1.1099463 LS 0.90954558 0.39387254 LPRIMARY 3.5341323 0.66554345 LPOP -0.71098202 0.65599094 LRGDP0 -0.19261777 0.30021197 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 7.9981182 26.772825 LM0 -6.6103515 -2.1186705 LS 0.092949299 1.6815357 LPRIMARY 2.1322687 5.3125267 LPOP -2.0617277 0.76180330 LRGDP0 -0.78103323 0.39579769 Observations 67.00000 Degrees of Freedom 61.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 18.90757 Residual Variance 0.30996 R-squared 0.68636 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (7e) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.34780 LM-test for no threshold 24.02011 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPBMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 2.37000 LM-test for no threshold 16.79878 Bootstrap P-Value 0.01200 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.409352 , 8.474243 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06878 Residual Variance 0.00034 Joint R-Squared 0.37361 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00218 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.11199165 0.14331892 LS 0.010804691 0.0047052073 LPRIMARY -0.0032292979 0.0070887882 LPOP -0.082715160 0.045066113 LRGDP0 -0.016948935 0.014825035 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.39961180 1.9768848 LS -0.0037259512 0.020151808 LPRIMARY -0.041113267 0.010775608 LPOP -0.17152469 0.20020022 LRGDP0 -0.25749958 0.013942500 Observations 61.00000 Degrees of Freedom 56.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02528 Residual Variance 0.00045 R-squared 0.18676 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.022540538 0.031484294 LS 0.020432623 0.0038227624 LPRIMARY 0.022046318 0.0075614109 LPOP -0.057998713 0.016264925 LRGDP0 -0.019508343 0.0028211601 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13984367 0.039239386 LS 0.012940009 0.029028458 LPRIMARY 0.0018435407 0.036866683 LPOP -0.091177290 -0.025526792 LRGDP0 -0.025037817 -0.0098782704 Observations 150.00000 Degrees of Freedom 145.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04351 Residual Variance 0.00030 R-squared 0.34734 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.087799099 0.031072949 LS 0.016455303 0.0033504498 LPRIMARY 0.0091593863 0.0045963086 LPOP -0.059417215 0.016042417 LRGDP0 -0.011540587 0.0029179040 Observations 211.00000 Degrees of Freedom 206.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.08117 Residual Variance 0.00039 R-squared 0.26084 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00024 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPNRP Threshold Estimate 2.37000 95% Confidence Interval: [ -3.18497 , 5.175633 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.06949 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.36717 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00005 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPNRP <= 2.370000 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.17380805 0.043580281 LS 0.014640363 0.0034788359 LPRIMARY 0.0053916610 0.0045727275 LPOP -0.089193238 0.018290212 LRGDP0 -0.010125578 0.0027848018 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.82259386 0.48164235 LS -0.013060210 0.026009201 LPRIMARY -0.051911552 0.018216401 LPOP -0.22182882 0.20461941 LRGDP0 -0.016273794 0.033127612 Observations 154.00000 Degrees of Freedom 149.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.06377 Residual Variance 0.00043 R-squared 0.26392 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPNRP > 2.370000 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.27962802 0.048640641 LS 0.018378188 0.0056740992 LPRIMARY 0.086849910 0.044337414 LPOP 0.021116590 0.015903391 LRGDP0 -0.026368935 0.0046478446 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.12341466 0.52538077 LS -0.010256619 0.036237349 LPRIMARY -0.024560033 0.17981125 LPOP -0.089252977 0.062935698 LRGDP0 -0.047386725 -0.0096072719 Observations 57.00000 Degrees of Freedom 52.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00572 Residual Variance 0.00011 R-squared 0.65902 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (8e) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 42.35863 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPBMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.11040 LM-test for no threshold 25.73589 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LLM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.09831 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.977281 , 8.504006 ] Sum of Squared Errors 94.30199 Residual Variance 0.54197 Joint R-Squared 0.35560 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.25413 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.048362325 2.6856702 LLM0 0.46455818 0.24564628 LS -0.0072600564 0.089802134 LPRIMARY -0.13342678 0.29600194 LPOP 1.5504256 1.1323690 LRGDP0 0.47136344 0.21776460 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -9.7565175 5.2155513 LLM0 -0.078769545 0.96343558 LS -0.18717509 0.28055536 LPRIMARY -0.75063108 0.45063749 LPOP -1.8467083 3.7698688 LRGDP0 0.044544816 0.99846851 Observations 95.00000 Degrees of Freedom 89.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 69.11337 Residual Variance 0.77655 R-squared 0.14859 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.098308 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 12.569435 2.4429362 LLM0 -2.1445088 1.0087053 LS 0.71763837 0.34452463 LPRIMARY 1.3383677 0.97917320 LPOP -0.34484362 0.52790160 LRGDP0 -0.60866535 0.31027287 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 5.6721870 22.286340 LLM0 -5.4085489 0.086267193 LS 0.042370085 1.3929066 LPRIMARY -7.1342841 3.9146560 LPOP -1.5308085 1.6809825 LRGDP0 -1.2168002 0.19826057 Observations 91.00000 Degrees of Freedom 85.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 25.18863 Residual Variance 0.29634 R-squared 0.59458 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.7571359 1.4464020 LLM0 0.53488775 0.25372971 LS 0.23176684 0.12580099 LPRIMARY 0.37968042 0.32207799 LPOP 0.96807487 0.75003824 LRGDP0 -0.47812996 0.14898202 Observations 186.00000 Degrees of Freedom 180.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 126.21711 Residual Variance 0.70121 R-squared 0.13752 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.31221 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPBMS Threshold Estimate 0.82198 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.543944 , 2.754737 ] Sum of Squared Errors 95.49624 Residual Variance 0.54883 Joint R-Squared 0.34744 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.09068 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPBMS <= 0.821978 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 8.5009686 2.2940929 LLM0 0.48639958 0.25575041 LS 0.027816370 0.10360998 LPRIMARY 0.12960864 0.31349090 LPOP 3.3192583 0.98618899 LRGDP0 -0.092100920 0.13358866 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.11552798 12.997391 LLM0 -0.034244396 1.0907649 LS -0.17525919 0.30851143 LPRIMARY -0.64886059 0.86156305 LPOP -1.0241524 5.3768974 LRGDP0 -0.60020326 0.25502976 Observations 120.00000 Degrees of Freedom 114.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 76.82429 Residual Variance 0.67390 R-squared 0.11791 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPBMS > 0.821978 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 17.100932 5.1330857 LLM0 -4.3002707 1.3358313 LS 0.92022153 0.51350010 LPRIMARY 3.4691825 1.3467544 LPOP -0.65155140 0.69843896 LRGDP0 -0.23209730 0.36327564 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 4.2049633 30.790494 LLM0 -6.9185001 -0.86388533 LS -0.086238664 1.9266817 LPRIMARY -4.6650459 6.1088211 LPOP -2.2855249 1.5070773 LRGDP0 -1.0177037 0.47992296 Observations 66.00000 Degrees of Freedom 60.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 18.67194 Residual Variance 0.31120 R-squared 0.67493 __________________________________________________ F) Border market support: 1960 -- 1990 --------------------- Specification (5f) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 LM-test for no threshold 17.62689 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00900 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using BMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -0.26870 LM-test for no threshold 14.41617 Bootstrap P-Value 0.03700 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.463653 , 7.287629 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04953 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.39456 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00531 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.073322362 0.16360793 LS 0.010413765 0.0049644779 LPRIMARY 0.0020035569 0.0094145650 LPOP -0.078016344 0.049402374 LRGDP0 -0.020084976 0.020593335 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.40603467 2.2714047 LS -0.0084598559 0.020281805 LPRIMARY -0.084677339 0.020720043 LPOP -0.17601743 0.32750219 LRGDP0 -0.25759987 0.023100832 Observations 45.00000 Degrees of Freedom 40.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01972 Residual Variance 0.00049 R-squared 0.17074 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.0039841729 0.032218618 LS 0.019010667 0.0043340879 LPRIMARY 0.029306100 0.0082258824 LPOP -0.062005499 0.017932318 LRGDP0 -0.022307776 0.0035748702 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13184224 0.059164318 LS 0.010515855 0.029852367 LPRIMARY 0.0060482912 0.045428830 LPOP -0.097452327 -0.025917785 LRGDP0 -0.029314522 -0.010069728 Observations 107.00000 Degrees of Freedom 102.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02980 Residual Variance 0.00029 R-squared 0.38706 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = BMS Threshold Estimate 0.10150 95% Confidence Interval: [ -0.46870 , 0.595300 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04838 Residual Variance 0.00034 Joint R-Squared 0.40860 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00137 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: BMS <= 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.048197743 0.061407546 LS 0.012071473 0.0039242279 LPRIMARY 0.0097629033 0.0056704659 LPOP -0.036105169 0.025560794 LRGDP0 -0.0074831067 0.0041720065 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -4.0458739 0.10923141 LS 0.0032792168 0.065913828 LPRIMARY -0.039989832 0.027431660 LPOP -1.4131233 0.041798376 LRGDP0 -0.022277172 0.052591438 Observations 98.00000 Degrees of Freedom 93.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04231 Residual Variance 0.00045 R-squared 0.16862 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: BMS > 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 0.19218321 0.054374989 LS 0.027473886 0.0050110177 LPRIMARY 0.040141806 0.0077022965 LPOP -0.014728911 0.020953719 LRGDP0 -0.031500464 0.0035388182 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.11028797 0.31883323 LS 0.0087284811 0.039733067 LPRIMARY 0.0080543267 0.061389679 LPOP -0.097379235 0.029048548 LRGDP0 -0.042836790 -0.010996411 Observations 54.00000 Degrees of Freedom 49.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00607 Residual Variance 0.00012 R-squared 0.69671 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (6f) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 31.87977 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using BMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate -0.00750 LM-test for no threshold 23.01527 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.35981 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.492162 ] Sum of Squared Errors 80.28521 Residual Variance 0.69211 Joint R-Squared 0.38409 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.17044 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -3.7616520 2.7765768 LM0 0.36288745 0.32868714 LS 0.0079474300 0.12933431 LPRIMARY -0.069284035 0.39124500 LPOP 0.13203599 1.1194158 LRGDP0 0.52709058 0.23549186 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -12.904677 6.5720159 LM0 -0.28133935 1.1512169 LS -0.26979598 0.35128999 LPRIMARY -0.94556164 0.69755617 LPOP -2.6220099 5.0193109 LRGDP0 0.065526532 1.3729405 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 66.43506 Residual Variance 0.99157 R-squared 0.14923 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.631969 3.5190821 LM0 -4.6886483 1.2500616 LS 0.85368921 0.44791234 LPRIMARY 0.048999670 2.0952116 LPOP -0.46781824 0.58911761 LRGDP0 -0.56025542 0.46542683 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 7.0393633 29.529370 LM0 -7.1387690 -1.1199414 LS -0.024218982 2.0733591 LPRIMARY -6.5281431 6.1015164 LPOP -2.4166180 1.1041701 LRGDP0 -1.5701199 0.40405911 Observations 55.00000 Degrees of Freedom 49.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 13.85015 Residual Variance 0.28266 R-squared 0.71839 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = BMS Threshold Estimate 0.10150 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.080100 , 0.102300 ] Sum of Squared Errors 81.27899 Residual Variance 0.70068 Joint R-Squared 0.37647 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.18831 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: BMS <= 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 10.288465 3.0537039 LM0 0.52797819 0.40771213 LS -0.050771443 0.14383645 LPRIMARY 0.0087461541 0.45415874 LPOP 4.2736517 1.3160046 LRGDP0 -0.00050753667 0.17441736 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 4.3032056 16.338763 LM0 -0.27113758 1.3689097 LS -0.34110485 0.23114800 LPRIMARY -0.88140498 0.92891903 LPOP 1.6347011 6.8530207 LRGDP0 -0.38655539 0.34135049 Observations 82.00000 Degrees of Freedom 76.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 66.57080 Residual Variance 0.87593 R-squared 0.11264 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: BMS > 0.101500 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 20.488679 4.3366065 LM0 -4.4266759 1.1934269 LS 1.0001540 0.45361742 LPRIMARY 4.0879784 0.69217017 LPOP 0.24180024 0.77173396 LRGDP0 -0.28634090 0.36214419 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 11.988930 31.634355 LM0 -6.7657925 -2.0875592 LS 0.045388527 1.8892442 LPRIMARY 2.7313249 6.0066806 LPOP -1.2707983 2.2556455 LRGDP0 -1.0014970 0.42346172 Observations 46.00000 Degrees of Freedom 40.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 14.70819 Residual Variance 0.36770 R-squared 0.73390 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (7f) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 LM-test for no threshold 17.62689 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00400 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPBMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.82198 LM-test for no threshold 12.65902 Bootstrap P-Value 0.08500 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 7.24237 95% Confidence Interval: [ 6.463653 , 7.287629 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04953 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.39456 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.00531 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.073322362 0.16360793 LS 0.010413765 0.0049644779 LPRIMARY 0.0020035569 0.0094145650 LPOP -0.078016344 0.049402374 LRGDP0 -0.020084976 0.020593335 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.40603467 2.2714047 LS -0.0084598559 0.020281805 LPRIMARY -0.084677339 0.020720043 LPOP -0.17601743 0.32750219 LRGDP0 -0.25759987 0.023100832 Observations 45.00000 Degrees of Freedom 40.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.01972 Residual Variance 0.00049 R-squared 0.17074 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 7.242368 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.0039841729 0.032218618 LS 0.019010667 0.0043340879 LPRIMARY 0.029306100 0.0082258824 LPOP -0.062005499 0.017932318 LRGDP0 -0.022307776 0.0035748702 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.13184224 0.059164318 LS 0.010515855 0.029852367 LPRIMARY 0.0060482912 0.045428830 LPOP -0.097452327 -0.025917785 LRGDP0 -0.029314522 -0.010069728 Observations 107.00000 Degrees of Freedom 102.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.02980 Residual Variance 0.00029 R-squared 0.38706 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: GGDP Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant -0.072797201 0.033539926 LS 0.014712732 0.0038118029 LPRIMARY 0.014782017 0.0054621905 LPOP -0.059907892 0.017633590 LRGDP0 -0.012671923 0.0036504744 Observations 152.00000 Degrees of Freedom 147.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.05991 Residual Variance 0.00041 R-squared 0.26756 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.00260 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPBMS Threshold Estimate -2.70971 95% Confidence Interval: [ -3.33484 , 5.086272 ] Sum of Squared Errors 0.04975 Residual Variance 0.00035 Joint R-Squared 0.39180 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.12826 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPBMS <= -2.70970 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.056448378 0.16552113 LS 0.0037577122 0.0065443259 LPRIMARY -0.019232053 0.016466392 LPOP 0.021100359 0.064932636 LRGDP0 0.012794628 0.0069439394 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -3.1866969 0.30233130 LS -0.010926750 0.044700941 LPRIMARY -0.051506182 0.11184397 LPOP -1.0293308 0.15634334 LRGDP0 -0.018538626 0.080048497 Observations 12.00000 Degrees of Freedom 7.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.00340 Residual Variance 0.00049 R-squared 0.22607 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPBMS > -2.70970 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -0.039560999 0.032762688 LS 0.017941676 0.0039776657 LPRIMARY 0.019812401 0.0050695794 LPOP -0.058504993 0.017753228 LRGDP0 -0.016991804 0.0029215819 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -0.11307860 0.35059878 LS 0.0090076627 0.044488396 LPRIMARY 0.0083661246 0.14791972 LPOP -0.095300440 0.043958236 LRGDP0 -0.043624346 -0.010004003 Observations 140.00000 Degrees of Freedom 135.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 0.04635 Residual Variance 0.00034 R-squared 0.33535 __________________________________________________ --------------------- Specification (8f) ----------------------------------- Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Output Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 9.10981 LM-test for no threshold 31.87977 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Testing for a First Sample Split, Using Interaction term GDPBMS Test of Null of No Threshold Against Alternative of Threshold Allowing Heteroskedastic Errors (White Corrected) Number of Bootstrap Replications 1000.00000 Trimming Percentage 0.15000 Threshold Estimate 0.37390 LM-test for no threshold 24.46464 Bootstrap P-Value 0.00000 Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LLM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = LRGDP0 Threshold Estimate 8.35981 95% Confidence Interval: [ 7.912240 , 8.492162 ] Sum of Squared Errors 80.28521 Residual Variance 0.69211 Joint R-Squared 0.38409 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.17044 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: LRGDP0 <= 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant -3.7616520 2.7765768 LLM0 0.36288745 0.32868714 LS 0.0079474300 0.12933431 LPRIMARY -0.069284035 0.39124500 LPOP 0.13203599 1.1194158 LRGDP0 0.52709058 0.23549186 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant -12.904677 6.5720159 LLM0 -0.28133935 1.1512169 LS -0.26979598 0.35128999 LPRIMARY -0.94556164 0.69755617 LPOP -2.6220099 5.0193109 LRGDP0 0.065526532 1.3729405 Observations 73.00000 Degrees of Freedom 67.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 66.43506 Residual Variance 0.99157 R-squared 0.14923 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: LRGDP0 > 8.359813 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.631969 3.5190821 LLM0 -4.6886483 1.2500616 LS 0.85368921 0.44791234 LPRIMARY 0.048999670 2.0952116 LPOP -0.46781824 0.58911761 LRGDP0 -0.56025542 0.46542683 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 7.0393633 29.529370 LLM0 -7.1387690 -1.1199414 LS -0.024218982 2.0733591 LPRIMARY -6.5281431 6.1015164 LPOP -2.4166180 1.1041701 LRGDP0 -1.5701199 0.40405911 Observations 55.00000 Degrees of Freedom 49.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 13.85015 Residual Variance 0.28266 R-squared 0.71839 __________________________________________________ Global OLS Estimation, Without Threshold Dependent Variable: LMHAT Heteroskedasticity Correction Used Variable Estimate St Error __________________________________________ Constant 4.4933829 1.7046471 LLM0 0.44235334 0.35475629 LS 0.20096925 0.16108481 LPRIMARY 0.54137093 0.42742952 LPOP 0.66964303 0.90998051 LRGDP0 -0.48045251 0.18956792 Observations 128.00000 Degrees of Freedom 122.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 116.86921 Residual Variance 0.95794 R-squared 0.10344 Heteroskedasticity Test (P-Value) 0.45717 __________________________________________________ Threshold Estimation Threshold Variable = GDPBMS Threshold Estimate 0.82198 95% Confidence Interval: [ 0.602567 , 0.821978 ] Sum of Squared Errors 82.63823 Residual Variance 0.71240 Joint R-Squared 0.36604 Heteroskedasticity Test (p-value) 0.15171 _____________________________________________ Regime 1: GDPBMS <= 0.821978 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 9.9127572 3.1762924 LLM0 0.45308211 0.36541763 LS -0.055991129 0.14400607 LPRIMARY 0.14519629 0.41369823 LPOP 4.0561571 1.3471046 LRGDP0 0.018077652 0.16689525 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 3.0162404 16.157387 LLM0 -0.32638666 1.3251840 LS -0.33824302 0.25012082 LPRIMARY -0.90981454 0.95604483 LPOP 1.4093504 6.8816674 LRGDP0 -0.31881569 0.42792608 Observations 83.00000 Degrees of Freedom 77.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 69.00928 Residual Variance 0.89622 R-squared 0.10542 _____________________________________________ Regime 2: GDPBMS > 0.821978 Parameter Estimates Variable Estimate St Error ________________________________________ Constant 22.617269 4.7150359 LLM0 -4.5247391 1.3986836 LS 0.91243353 0.60810092 LPRIMARY 4.4880455 1.3026144 LPOP 0.47652693 0.91474657 LRGDP0 -0.36415862 0.46413338 95% Confidence Regions for Parameters Variable Low High ________________________________________ Constant 5.3579092 31.858740 LLM0 -7.2661589 -0.40767570 LS -0.27944427 2.1043113 LPRIMARY 1.9176746 7.0411697 LPOP -2.3054335 2.2694302 LRGDP0 -1.3481697 0.54554282 Observations 45.00000 Degrees of Freedom 39.00000 Sum of Squared Errors 13.62894 Residual Variance 0.34946 R-squared 0.74250 __________________________________________________